How Will Nashville Fare In The Next Downturn?

We all know it’s coming…just a question of when and how bad. 

Most experts predict it is still a few years off, but you still need to be prepared.  While we can’t predict the future, we can look to the past to get a glimpse of what may happen.  Because I’ve been getting this question a lot lately, I decided to dig in for you all.  

And here’s what I found.  

Corelogic, a world leader in information intelligence for the housing and financial industry, recently wrote a report on the National Housing Market since the Great Recession.  

Here’s what the report discovered about Tennessee:

• Tennessee ranks 13th among states on the 5-year appreciation (2012-2017) rate at 33%
   
• Only two Southern states rank higher: Florida (46%) and Georgia (41%)
   
• From the peak (June 2007) to the bottom: Tennessee lost 13% in value
   
• From peak to bottom: Florida lost 50%, Georgia lost 31% & the US lost 33% in value
   
• From the peak in 2007 through now: TN is up 20%
   
• Georgia is up 7%, Florida is down 16%, and the US is up 1% over the same time period

I think Tennessee fared better because we did not have a huge run up in price before the last recession.  Some places around the country were seeing 50% appreciation year over year.

Not only is that not sustainable, but it sets the market up for a big crash when the smoke clears and the hysteria wanes.  My best guess is that will hold true when the next downturn hits.  

Here’s why I think Nashville and Tennessee will prevail 

• More than 100 people per day are relocating here for opportunity and a better lifestyle
   
• We have no state income tax and our state constitution prohibits one
   
• The State of Tennessee has more than $2 billion surplus
   
• Fobes’ ranks Nashville  the #8 city in the nation for job creation and opportunity
   
• Money magazine ranks Nashville the #8 city for tech job growth
   
• SmartAsset Magazine ranks Nashville the #6 city for young professionals
   
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics ranks Nashville as the #3 Fasting Growing Large Metro 

And the accolades go on and on.

While the national economy is always in the back of my mind, I feel that Nashville is uniquely positioned to weather any storm and come out stronger.  

And I wouldn't want to be anywhere else.

If you want a copy of this Corelogic report, just hit reply and I’ll send it to you.

The Daily Deal in Nashville is this renovated bungalow in Eastwood Neighbors [East Nashville] that is listed for less than $400,000.