10 Signs that Nashville is NOT Headed for a Downturn
Most people will agree that Nashville is on fire. The city is growing faster than expected and it has some people worried because the hardest hit areas during the recent housing crisis were those who grew the quickest.
At some point, the growth has to slow down beyond the holiday season. According to every indicator, this does not seem likely in the recent future. At this point, it would take a significant, national catastrophe to turn the tide in Nashville.
Here are 10 reasons why Nashville is Not Headed for a Downturn anytime soon.
- Per the U.S. Census Data, more than 31,000 people moved to Nashville last year. That is more than 87 people per day that are moving here from outside of middle Tennessee.
- Builders are selling homes faster than they can construct them. Most new neighborhoods have no inventory of completed, new construction. Builder inventory is a leading indicator of the market. If we were close to a downturn, you would see it here first.
- The list price to sales price ratio is still averaging close to 100% (or more) for all the neighborhoods in my recent study. See your favorite area here: List Price vs. Sales Price in Nashville
- Days on market has been stable at 56 – 58 days for the last 5 months and is down from a high of 77 days in January of 2015. If the economy was headed down, you would expect to see an increase in the days on market (DOM). Anything below 60 is definitely a seller’s market.
- Sales are increasing. Year-to-date closings for Nashville have increased 11.9 percent. There were 31,282 closings, compared with 27,957 closings reported through October of 2014.
- Prices are increasing. See the double digit growth for these 20 Nashville Area Zip Codes for your favorite area here: 20 Areas Leading Nashville's Growth
- Investors are still active. I continue to see active investors in every area of Nashville, especially in the urban core and surrounding neighborhoods.
- The foreclosure rate continues to decrease. Corelogic reports that the number of foreclosures completed in Nashville decreased 26% from 2014 to 2015. Delinquent loan data from 2015 shows that the share of loans 90 days late or more in Nashville has slipped to the lowest level since the recession.
- The Jobless rate in Nashville has declined continuously since 2009 to a low of less than 5% in 2015. We are currently down 0.7 percentage points over 2014.
- Job growth is essential to a healthy economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nashville has seen a 21% growth in non-farm jobs from 2009 to 2015. Jobs are one of the strongest magnets attracting people to Nashville.
It’s not too late to take advantage of this incredible opportunity in Nashville. Like my grandpa used to say, Strike while the Iron is Hot!
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